Have you ever been drawn to a roulette table because of the
display board? The one that says black has come up 6 times in a
row? Ever have the urge to put your money on the table in that
situation? If so, what do you do?
Bet red, because it's due to hit this time!
That answer, while it is a very popular one, is absolutely
wrong! You should always bet with the streak, or not at all.
Betting red in this situation is wrong for two reasons. The
first reason's mathematical: no matter how many times a color
comes up in roulette, there's still (roughly) a 50/50 chance
that red or black will come up on the next spin. It doesn't
matter if black came up 5 times in a row, 500 times in a row or
5 million times in a row. Every spin in roulette is an
independent event; what happened before or after the spin
doesn't change the probability of a certain outcome. The idea
that an event can become 'due' over time is known as 'the
gambler's fallacy', and has contributed to the demise of many a
player's bankroll.
The second reason's psychological. What happens if you bet red,
and black comes up again? Do you increase your bet on red? After
all, it's even more due now, right? Sure, you may luck out and
red comes up on that next spin, but if black comes up once more,
how would you deal with it? If you bet against the streak and
lose, and get in the trap of pressing up your bet hoping the
streak stops, the casino's got you right where they want you! If
the streak keeps going you'll be broke, wondering to yourself
"what're the odds of THAT happening?"
If you bet with the streak, worst case is you lose your base bet
as the streak comes to an end, universal balance and order is
restored and you can play your game as normal.
Until next time, take care and best of luck in the casino.
About Author :
Shawn Tinling runs 21 Nights Entertainment (www.21nights.com), a
casino entertainment and events company in New York City.
